Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (67%) · Thunder at 59¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Thunder
3
Thunder 67%
$10.1K
$0.01
59¢ → 59¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidThunder at 59%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Thunderavg 59¢ | $5.6K | $5.5K | -$47.14 | 54% 17531-14733 (32264) |
WO woshikd99CTR | Cavaliersavg 41¢ | $10.1K | $4.2K | +$50.46 | 53% 135-118 (253) |
FE ferdinand2 | Thunderavg 59¢ | $390.02 | $393.32 | -$3.3 | 48% 5526-5987 (11513) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.