Thunder vs. Cavaliers
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (67%) · Cavaliers at 61¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Cavaliers
3
Cavaliers 67%
$4.4K
$85.32
59.8¢ → 61¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidCavaliers at 61%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AA aaabbb | Cavaliersavg 61.3¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$7.49 | 50% 447-447 (894) |
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF | Cavaliersavg 58.2¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$89.34 | 54% 402-345 (747) |
ST stackingsatsCTR | Thunderavg 39¢ | $898.29 | $898.29 | -$11.51 | 48% 344-371 (715) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.