Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 217.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 51¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 67%
$6.2K
$21.53
49.8¢ → 50.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 49.8¢ | $3.2K | $3.3K | +$45.06 | 56% 3926-3105 (7031) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | -$26.45 | 49% 2881-2944 (5825) |
GC GC-P | Overavg 50¢ | $175 | $176.75 | +$1.75 | 43% 567-758 (1325) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $87.5 | $88.38 | +$0.88 | 59% 3966-2735 (6701) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $10.32 | $10.64 | +$0.32 | 53% 2377-2113 (4490) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.48 | -$0.02 | 43% 873-1152 (2025) |
Invested
$3,244.27
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$45.06
Record
56%
3926-3105 (7031)
Invested
$2,645.35
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$26.45
Record
49%
2881-2944 (5825)
Invested
$175
Value
$176.75
PnL
+$1.75
Record
43%
567-758 (1325)
Invested
$87.5
Value
$88.38
PnL
+$0.88
Record
59%
3966-2735 (6701)
Invested
$10.32
Value
$10.64
PnL
+$0.32
Record
53%
2377-2113 (4490)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.48
PnL
-$0.02
Record
43%
873-1152 (2025)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.