Spread: Knicks (-2.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (70%) · Knicks at 56¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Knicks56¢Raptors44¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Knicks

Consensus Traders

Knicks 70%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$47.47

Smart Money Entry

57.6¢ → 55.5¢

-4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks56%

Raptors45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors3 traders

Total Value$408.76

Total Shares939

Combined PnL+$25.56

Knicks7 traders

Total Value$803.83

Total Shares1,357

Combined PnL+$21.9

Raptors — 30%Knicks — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKnicks 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedKnicks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Knicks 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Raptorsavg 41¢	$309.84	$336.35	+$26.5	50% 760-746 (1506)
VeryLucky888	Knicksavg 56¢	$280	$274.95	+$18.75	53% 1989-1729 (3718)
NM NM-P	Knicksavg 59¢	$206.5	$204.75	-$1.75	59% 3971-2747 (6718)
GC GC-P	Knicksavg 59¢	$206.5	$204.75	-$1.75	43% 577-770 (1347)
38 38791873984189<$100	Knicksavg 56¢	$71.12	$76.2	+$5.08	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 40¢	$71.2	$70.31	-$0.89	57% 3683-2778 (6461)
SU suntori<$100	Knicksavg 57¢	$23.8	$25.05	+$1.25	46% 3397-3944 (7341)
PA Pan9X<$100	Knicksavg 60¢	$15	$15.13	+$0.13	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Knicksavg 56¢	$2.8	$3	+$0.2	43% 875-1153 (2028)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.1	-$0.05	38% 1425-2328 (3753)

nigiri99CTR

Raptors

Invested

$309.84

Value

$336.35

PnL

+$26.5

Record

50%

760-746 (1506)

VeryLucky888

Knicks

Invested

$280

Value

$274.95

PnL

+$18.75

Record

53%

1989-1729 (3718)

NM-P

Knicks

Invested

$206.5

Value

$204.75

PnL

-$1.75

Record

59%

3971-2747 (6718)

GC-P

Knicks

Invested

$206.5

Value

$204.75

PnL

-$1.75

Record

43%

577-770 (1347)

38791873984189<$100

Knicks

Invested

$71.12

Value

$76.2

PnL

+$5.08

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$71.2

Value

$70.31

PnL

-$0.89

Record

57%

3683-2778 (6461)

suntori<$100

Knicks

Invested

$23.8

Value

$25.05

PnL

+$1.25

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

Pan9X<$100

Knicks

Invested

$15

Value

$15.13

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

ameisgoat11<$100

Knicks

Invested

$2.8

Value

PnL

+$0.2

Record

43%

875-1153 (2028)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKnicks 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedKnicks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Knicks 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Knicks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.