Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (55%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 229.5

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (88%) · Over at 46¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30

Over46¢Under54¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 88%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$57.69

Smart Money Entry

46.4¢ → 45.5¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,272

Combined PnL+$111.91

Under1 trader

Total Value$691.25

Total Shares1,355

Combined PnL-$54.22

Over — 88%Under — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 47¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$58.13	54% 17024-14269 (31293)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Underavg 55¢	$745.47	$691.25	-$54.22	53% 383-337 (720)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 45¢	$450	$490	+$40	53% 5558-4922 (10480)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 45¢	$112.5	$122.5	+$10	58% 41361-29991 (71352)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$30.81	$32.83	+$2.02	58% 28303-20884 (49187)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$11.25	$11.82	+$0.57	54% 3276-2828 (6104)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$9	$9.8	+$0.8	55% 7013-5629 (12642)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$4.39	$4.78	+$0.39	53% 11512-10014 (21526)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$1,366

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$58.13

Record

54%

17024-14269 (31293)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Under

Invested

$745.47

Value

$691.25

PnL

-$54.22

Record

53%

383-337 (720)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$450

Value

$490

PnL

+$40

Record

53%

5558-4922 (10480)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$112.5

Value

$122.5

PnL

+$10

Record

58%

41361-29991 (71352)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30.81

Value

$32.83

PnL

+$2.02

Record

58%

28303-20884 (49187)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.25

Value

$11.82

PnL

+$0.57

Record

54%

3276-2828 (6104)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$9.8

PnL

+$0.8

Record

55%

7013-5629 (12642)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.39

Value

$4.78

PnL

+$0.39

Record

53%

11512-10014 (21526)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.