Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 225.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 52¢ · $10K held · ends Oct 30

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

$183.85

Smart Money Entry

54.8¢ → 51.5¢

-6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares9,963

Combined PnL-$79.95

Under6 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares10,313

Combined PnL+$263.8

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Overavg 55¢	$4.4K	$4.3K	-$80	52% 1563-1445 (3008)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 45.6¢	$3.7K	$3.9K	+$231.07	54% 17123-14335 (31458)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Overavg 54¢	$1.9K	$1.0K	+$0	46% 430-505 (935)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Underavg 45¢	$447.99	$482.75	+$34.76	54% 3325-2874 (6199)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 46¢	$460	$460	+$0	53% 5579-4941 (10520)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$83.66	$81.88	-$1.78	50% 3804-3764 (7568)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 45.8¢	$63.45	$65.1	-$0.45	58% 28428-20989 (49417)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 53.5¢	$24	$24.05	+$0.05	57% 13655-10447 (24102)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 45.5¢	$4.55	$4.75	+$0.2	47% 2272-2555 (4827)

vibing123

Over

Invested

$4,399.98

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$80

Record

52%

1563-1445 (3008)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$3,662.09

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$231.07

Record

54%

17123-14335 (31458)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Over

Invested

$1,930.8

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

430-505 (935)

HerdoniaCTR

Under

Invested

$447.99

Value

$482.75

PnL

+$34.76

Record

54%

3325-2874 (6199)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$460

Value

$460

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

5579-4941 (10520)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$83.66

Value

$81.88

PnL

-$1.78

Record

50%

3804-3764 (7568)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$63.45

Value

$65.1

PnL

-$0.45

Record

58%

28428-20989 (49417)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$24

Value

$24.05

PnL

+$0.05

Record

57%

13655-10447 (24102)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.55

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$0.2

Record

47%

2272-2555 (4827)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.