Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (92%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 223.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 8.0¢ · $12K held

Over8¢Under92¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.9K

Combined PnL

-$43.59

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 8¢

-85% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 92%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over8%

Under92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,694

Combined PnL-$44.01

Under2 traders

Total Value$179.53

Total Shares359

Combined PnL+$0.42

Over — 75%Under — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 53.8¢	$10.5K	$10.3K	-$216.33	54% 17124-14337 (31461)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.5¢	$5.3K	$5.4K	+$108.94
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.8¢	$5.3K	$4.9K	-$325.28
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 52.5¢	$2.1K	$985.96	-$39.25	58% 41580-30193 (71773)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR	Overavg 52¢	$280	$277.31	-$2.69	58% 219-159 (378)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 50¢	$175	$171.5	-$3.5	51% 1415-1356 (2771)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 54.7¢	$79.09	$77.99	-$1.1	58% 28450-21016 (49466)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.7¢	$60.17	$56.65	-$3.52
└ Under leg	Underavg 43¢	$18.92	$21.34	+$2.42
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$58.03	$56.36	-$1.67	48% 783-852 (1635)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$31.8	$32.1	+$0.3	50% 3806-3765 (7571)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$20.18	$20.79	+$0.62	62% 4127-2523 (6650)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 44.8¢	$4.11	$8.03	+$3.92	52% 4099-3733 (7832)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 57¢	$13.89	$4.86	-$1.31	57% 13663-10453 (24116)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$10,510.07

Value

$10.3K

PnL

-$216.33

Record

54%

17124-14337 (31461)

Both legs:

Under$5,254.3648.5¢+$108.94

Over$5,255.7153.8¢-$325.28

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$2,104.29

Value

$985.96

PnL

-$39.25

Record

58%

41580-30193 (71773)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR

Over

Invested

$280

Value

$277.31

PnL

-$2.69

Record

58%

219-159 (378)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$175

Value

$171.5

PnL

-$3.5

Record

51%

1415-1356 (2771)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$79.09

Value

$77.99

PnL

-$1.1

Record

58%

28450-21016 (49466)

Both legs:

Over$60.1754.7¢-$3.52

Under$18.9243¢+$2.42

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$58.03

Value

$56.36

PnL

-$1.67

Record

48%

783-852 (1635)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$31.8

Value

$32.1

PnL

+$0.3

Record

50%

3806-3765 (7571)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.18

Value

$20.79

PnL

+$0.62

Record

62%

4127-2523 (6650)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$4.11

Value

$8.03

PnL

+$3.92

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.89

Value

$4.86

PnL

-$1.31

Record

57%

13663-10453 (24116)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 92%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.4%

8.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$962.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

1062.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.