Spread: 76ers (-5.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (50%) · Knicks at 53¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 30

76ers48¢Knicks52¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Knicks

Consensus Traders

Knicks 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$11.26

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 52.5¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

76ers48%

Knicks53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks3 traders

Total Value$642.27

Total Shares1,170

Combined PnL+$11.77

76ers3 traders

Total Value$604.41

Total Shares1,278

Combined PnL-$0.51

Knicks — 50%76ers — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeARB<$100	76ersavg 49.6¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$65.23	53% 4002-3482 (7484)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 49.6¢	$1.0K	$990.37	-$44.38
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 54.8¢	$496.06	$475.2	-$20.86
0X 0x5E5175106a7Dbbd92B10f1b56458Fc8c1Bdd42ce-1730865746538	Knicksavg 53.3¢	$593.51	$601.55	+$8.04	68% 1456-692 (2148)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	76ersavg 47.5¢	$591.59	$591.61	+$0.02	59% 45474-31848 (77322)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	76ersavg 48.6¢	$553.03	$568.73	+$15.71	48% 788-869 (1657)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 48.6¢	$421.04	$441.93	+$20.88
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 51¢	$131.98	$126.81	-$5.18
OD Oddstorm<$100	Knicksavg 71¢	$27.82	$28.41	+$0.59	38% 383-625 (1008)
AN Anon455<$100	Knicksavg 54¢	$9.17	$12.31	+$3.14	55% 2868-2301 (5169)
HRTradingCTR<$100	76ersavg 46.5¢	$7.69	$7.85	+$0.15	53% 4191-3790 (7981)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	76ersavg 31.3¢	$5.64	$4.95	-$0.69	50% 6984-6978 (13962)

takeormakeARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$1,530.81

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$65.23

Record

53%

4002-3482 (7484)

Both legs:

76ers$1,034.7549.6¢-$44.38

Knicks$496.0654.8¢-$20.86

0x5E5175106a7Dbbd92B10f1b56458Fc8c1Bdd42ce-1730865746538

Knicks

Invested

$593.51

Value

$601.55

PnL

+$8.04

Record

68%

1456-692 (2148)

UpTheBluesCTR

76ers

Invested

$591.59

Value

$591.61

PnL

+$0.02

Record

59%

45474-31848 (77322)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$553.03

Value

$568.73

PnL

+$15.71

Record

48%

788-869 (1657)

Both legs:

76ers$421.0448.6¢+$20.88

Knicks$131.9851¢-$5.18

Oddstorm<$100

Knicks

Invested

$27.82

Value

$28.41

PnL

+$0.59

Record

38%

383-625 (1008)

Anon455<$100

Knicks

Invested

$9.17

Value

$12.31

PnL

+$3.14

Record

55%

2868-2301 (5169)

HRTradingCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$7.69

Value

$7.85

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

4191-3790 (7981)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$5.64

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0.69

Record

50%

6984-6978 (13962)

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Knicks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.