Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Knicks, while the market favors 76ers (65%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: 76ers (-2.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (67%) · Knicks at 36¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 30

76ers65¢Knicks35¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Knicks

Consensus Traders

Knicks 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

-$46.8

Smart Money Entry

48.3¢ → 35.5¢

-26% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 36%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

76ers65%

Knicks36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,826

Combined PnL-$137.83

76ers2 traders

Total Value$276.13

Total Shares453

Combined PnL+$91.03

Knicks — 67%76ers — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKnicks 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrKnicks 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Knicks 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeARB<$100	76ersavg 63.3¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$53	53% 4002-3482 (7484)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 63.3¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$111.01
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 43.3¢	$629.64	$465.63	-$164.01
AN Anon455CTR	Knicksavg 46.5¢	$1.1K	$948.64	-$114.95	55% 2868-2301 (5169)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Knicksavg 61.3¢	$618.7	$620.5	+$21.48	46% 8113-9541 (17654)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 61.3¢	$377.76	$338.8	-$38.96
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 36.1¢	$226.13	$281.7	+$60.44
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Knicksavg 47¢	$500	$500	+$0	47% 313-354 (667)
FO Forecastication2	76ersavg 37¢	$136.9	$225.7	+$88.8	50% 6984-6978 (13962)
OD OddstormCTR	Knicksavg 63.8¢	$248.15	$213.94	-$30.32	38% 383-625 (1008)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Knicksavg 52.6¢	$166.51	$161.29	-$5.23	48% 788-869 (1657)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 52.6¢	$90.57	$94.75	+$4.18
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 51.4¢	$75.94	$66.54	-$9.41
HRTrading<$100	76ersavg 56¢	$48.2	$50.43	+$2.23	53% 4191-3790 (7981)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Knicksavg 40¢	$35	$42.44	+$7.44	59% 30410-21120 (51530)

takeormakeARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$2,121.21

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$53

Record

53%

4002-3482 (7484)

Both legs:

76ers$1,491.5763.3¢+$111.01

Knicks$629.6443.3¢-$164.01

Anon455CTR

Knicks

Invested

$1,063.59

Value

$948.64

PnL

-$114.95

Record

55%

2868-2301 (5169)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$618.7

Value

$620.5

PnL

+$21.48

Record

46%

8113-9541 (17654)

Both legs:

Knicks$377.7661.3¢-$38.96

76ers$226.1336.1¢+$60.44

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Knicks

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

313-354 (667)

Forecastication2

76ers

Invested

$136.9

Value

$225.7

PnL

+$88.8

Record

50%

6984-6978 (13962)

OddstormCTR

Knicks

Invested

$248.15

Value

$213.94

PnL

-$30.32

Record

38%

383-625 (1008)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$166.51

Value

$161.29

PnL

-$5.23

Record

48%

788-869 (1657)

Both legs:

Knicks$90.5752.6¢+$4.18

76ers$75.9451.4¢-$9.41

HRTrading<$100

76ers

Invested

$48.2

Value

$50.43

PnL

+$2.23

Record

53%

4191-3790 (7981)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$35

Value

$42.44

PnL

+$7.44

Record

59%

30410-21120 (51530)

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 36%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKnicks 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrKnicks 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Knicks 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Knicks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.