Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Knicks, while the market favors 76ers (62%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Knicks (-6.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (50%) · Knicks at 38¢ · $79 held · ends Oct 30

Knicks38¢76ers62¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Knicks

Consensus Traders

Knicks 50%

Total Value

$79.3

Combined PnL

$1.56

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 62%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks38%

76ers62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks2 traders

Total Value$41.48

Total Shares109

Combined PnL+$0.54

76ers2 traders

Total Value$37.82

Total Shares61

Combined PnL+$1.03

Knicks — 50%76ers — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Knicksavg 37.5¢	$38.6	$39.14	+$0.54	58% 28450-21016 (49466)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	76ersavg 63¢	$25.83	$25.42	+$1.03	62% 4127-2523 (6650)
FO Forecastication2<$100	76ersavg 65¢	$12.4	$12.4	+$0	50% 6977-6973 (13950)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Knicksavg 38¢	$2.34	$2.34	+$0	46% 8071-9516 (17587)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$38.6

Value

$39.14

PnL

+$0.54

Record

58%

28450-21016 (49466)

SunlineTicker<$100

76ers

Invested

$25.83

Value

$25.42

PnL

+$1.03

Record

62%

4127-2523 (6650)

Forecastication2<$100

76ers

Invested

$12.4

Value

$12.4

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

6977-6973 (13950)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$2.34

Value

$2.34

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

8071-9516 (17587)

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 62%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Knicks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.2%

38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$148.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

248.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.