Spread: Knicks (-4.5)

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (88%) · 76ers at 56¢ · $948 held · ends Oct 30

Knicks45¢76ers55¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 88%

Total Value

$948.23

Combined PnL

$12.85

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 55.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks45%

76ers56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers7 traders

Total Value$931.32

Total Shares1,679

Combined PnL+$13.42

Knicks1 trader

Total Value$16.91

Total Shares38

Combined PnL-$0.57

76ers — 88%Knicks — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctr76ers 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 100076ers 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	76ersavg 55¢	$501.7	$506.26	+$4.56	54% 17123-14336 (31459)
RN1	76ersavg 54.9¢	$307.93	$311.03	+$3.1	54% 56351-48500 (104851)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	76ersavg 54.7¢	$59.58	$60.5	+$0.92	58% 28432-20995 (49427)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	76ersavg 54¢	$20.52	$21.09	+$0.57	50% 3805-3765 (7570)
VeryLucky888	76ersavg 55¢	$275	$20.54	+$4.82	58% 41528-30164 (71692)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Knicksavg 46¢	$17.48	$16.91	-$0.57	62% 4127-2523 (6650)
SE sentrio<$100	76ersavg 59¢	$10.07	$9.21	-$0.34	50% 24907-24601 (49508)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	76ersavg 58¢	$2.9	$2.7	-$0.2	47% 2277-2560 (4837)

HomeRunHazard

76ers

Invested

$501.7

Value

$506.26

PnL

+$4.56

Record

54%

17123-14336 (31459)

RN1

76ers

Invested

$307.93

Value

$311.03

PnL

+$3.1

Record

54%

56351-48500 (104851)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

76ers

Invested

$59.58

Value

$60.5

PnL

+$0.92

Record

58%

28432-20995 (49427)

NatoAlfista<$100

76ers

Invested

$20.52

Value

$21.09

PnL

+$0.57

Record

50%

3805-3765 (7570)

VeryLucky888

76ers

Invested

$275

Value

$20.54

PnL

+$4.82

Record

58%

41528-30164 (71692)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$17.48

Value

$16.91

PnL

-$0.57

Record

62%

4127-2523 (6650)

sentrio<$100

76ers

Invested

$10.07

Value

$9.21

PnL

-$0.34

Record

50%

24907-24601 (49508)

ameisgoat11<$100

76ers

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$0.2

Record

47%

2277-2560 (4837)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

76ers

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctr76ers 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 100076ers 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.