Spread: Knicks (-3.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (78%) · 76ers at 51¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 30

Knicks50¢76ers50¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 78%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

$71.51

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 50.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks50%

76ers51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers7 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,750

Combined PnL+$74.2

Knicks2 traders

Total Value$251.82

Total Shares505

Combined PnL-$2.68

76ers — 78%Knicks — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	76ersavg 50¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$53.05	54% 17123-14335 (31458)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 50¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$23.77
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 47.9¢	$898.63	$927.9	+$29.28
HI hi774c	76ersavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$29.15	52% 4715-4427 (9142)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	76ersavg 52¢	$520	$565	+$45	53% 5579-4941 (10520)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	76ersavg 52¢	$316.87	$308.08	-$8.79	46% 8006-9466 (17472)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 52¢	$235.04	$223.74	-$11.3
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 49¢	$81.83	$84.34	+$2.5
VeryLucky888CTR	Knicksavg 50¢	$252.26	$249.65	-$2.61	58% 41515-30150 (71665)
RN1	76ersavg 50.5¢	$252.5	$247.5	-$5	54% 56331-48482 (104813)
HE Herdonia	76ersavg 52.8¢	$99.99	$107.04	+$7.05	54% 3325-2874 (6199)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	76ersavg 50¢	$51.21	$50.7	-$0.51	50% 3804-3764 (7568)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	76ersavg 54.3¢	$31.96	$30.4	-$1.57	58% 28428-20989 (49417)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	76ersavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.82	+$0.07	47% 2272-2555 (4827)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Knicksavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.18	-$0.08	59% 45382-31736 (77118)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$3,275.63

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$53.05

Record

54%

17123-14335 (31458)

Both legs:

76ers$2,37750¢+$23.77

Knicks$898.6347.9¢+$29.28

hi774c

76ers

Invested

$1,457.48

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$29.15

Record

52%

4715-4427 (9142)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

76ers

Invested

$520

Value

$565

PnL

+$45

Record

53%

5579-4941 (10520)

38791873984189ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$316.87

Value

$308.08

PnL

-$8.79

Record

46%

8006-9466 (17472)

Both legs:

76ers$235.0452¢-$11.3

Knicks$81.8349¢+$2.5

VeryLucky888CTR

Knicks

Invested

$252.26

Value

$249.65

PnL

-$2.61

Record

58%

41515-30150 (71665)

RN1

76ers

Invested

$252.5

Value

$247.5

PnL

-$5

Record

54%

56331-48482 (104813)

Herdonia

76ers

Invested

$99.99

Value

$107.04

PnL

+$7.05

Record

54%

3325-2874 (6199)

NatoAlfista<$100

76ers

Invested

$51.21

Value

$50.7

PnL

-$0.51

Record

50%

3804-3764 (7568)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

76ers

Invested

$31.96

Value

$30.4

PnL

-$1.57

Record

58%

28428-20989 (49417)

ameisgoat11<$100

76ers

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.82

PnL

+$0.07

Record

47%

2272-2555 (4827)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0.08

Record

59%

45382-31736 (77118)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

76ers

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.