Spread: Knicks (-1.5)

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (20%) · Knicks at 52¢ · $21K held · ends Oct 30

Knicks52¢76ers48¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Knicks

Consensus Traders

Knicks 20%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.4K

Combined PnL

-$58.64

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 51.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

2 of 10 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks52%

76ers49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks2 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares20,383

Combined PnL-$100

76ers8 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares10,481

Combined PnL+$41.36

Knicks — 20%76ers — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whale76ers 100% · 1

Diverging

sharp76ers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctr76ers 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-picked76ers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 100076ers 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Knicksavg 52¢	$20.0K	$10.3K	-$100	54% 588-507 (1095)
BA BayupatiARB<$100	Knicksavg 53¢	$5.9K	$5.8K	-$58.3	51% 219-208 (427)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 53¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$58.3
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 48¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$0
SU SunlineTickerCTR	76ersavg 47.8¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$35.38	62% 4127-2523 (6650)
WO woshikd99CTR	76ersavg 48¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$0	54% 134-115 (249)
OD OddstormCTR	76ersavg 48¢	$293.36	$293.36	+$0	38% 377-619 (996)
VeryLucky888CTR	76ersavg 47¢	$242.99	$248.16	+$5.17	58% 41483-30101 (71584)
38 38791873984189	Knicksavg 52¢	$230.73	$230.73	-$0	46% 7901-9318 (17219)
HRTradingCTR<$100	76ersavg 48¢	$29.88	$29.88	+$0	52% 3992-3635 (7627)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	76ersavg 47¢	$15.51	$15.84	+$0.33	58% 28411-20968 (49379)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	76ersavg 47¢	$15.22	$15.54	+$0.32	57% 13591-10418 (24009)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	76ersavg 47¢	$7.6	$7.76	+$0.16	54% 3325-2874 (6199)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Knicks

Invested

$19,999.89

Value

$10.3K

PnL

-$100

Record

54%

588-507 (1095)

BayupatiARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$5,888.49

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$58.3

Record

51%

219-208 (427)

Both legs:

Knicks$3,09053¢-$58.3

76ers$2,798.4948¢+$0

SunlineTickerCTR

76ers

Invested

$2,587.02

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$35.38

Record

62%

4127-2523 (6650)

woshikd99CTR

76ers

Invested

$1,824.96

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

134-115 (249)

OddstormCTR

76ers

Invested

$293.36

Value

$293.36

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

377-619 (996)

VeryLucky888CTR

76ers

Invested

$242.99

Value

$248.16

PnL

+$5.17

Record

58%

41483-30101 (71584)

38791873984189

Knicks

Invested

$230.73

Value

$230.73

PnL

-$0

Record

46%

7901-9318 (17219)

HRTradingCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$29.88

Value

$29.88

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

3992-3635 (7627)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$15.51

Value

$15.84

PnL

+$0.33

Record

58%

28411-20968 (49379)

ghorrockCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$15.22

Value

$15.54

PnL

+$0.32

Record

57%

13591-10418 (24009)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$7.6

Value

$7.76

PnL

+$0.16

Record

54%

3325-2874 (6199)

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

2 of 10 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whale76ers 100% · 1

Diverging

sharp76ers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctr76ers 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-picked76ers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 100076ers 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Knicks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.