Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Knicks, while the market favors 76ers (53%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Knicks vs. 76ers
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (50%) · Knicks at 48¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Knicks
4
Knicks 50%
1 arb excluded
$5.5K
-$235.01
48.9¢ → 47.5¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidKnicks at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DO DolphinBallerCTR | Knicksavg 48.9¢ | $4.9K | $4.6K | -$240 | 49% 86-91 (177) |
TA takeormake | 76ersavg 52¢ | $481.02 | $485.65 | +$4.63 | 54% 3829-3308 (7137) |
EF 0xefde...6505ARB<$100 | 76ersavg 57.1¢ | $297.98 | $284.21 | -$13.77 | — |
| └ Knicks leg | Knicksavg 48¢ | $147.12 | $145.58 | -$1.53 | |
| └ 76ers leg | 76ersavg 57.1¢ | $150.87 | $138.63 | -$12.24 | |
GH ghorrock<$100 | 76ersavg 52¢ | $19.43 | $19.62 | +$0.19 | 57% 13257-10098 (23355) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Knicksavg 46¢ | $16.56 | $16.74 | +$0.18 | 59% 9529-6541 (16070) |
Invested
$4,889.99
Value
$4.6K
PnL
-$240
Record
49%
86-91 (177)
Invested
$481.02
Value
$485.65
PnL
+$4.63
Record
54%
3829-3308 (7137)
Invested
$297.98
Value
$284.21
PnL
-$13.77
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$19.43
Value
$19.62
PnL
+$0.19
Record
57%
13257-10098 (23355)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$16.56
Value
$16.74
PnL
+$0.18
Record
59%
9529-6541 (16070)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.