Spread: Knicks (-17.5)
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (56%) · Pacers at 78¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Pacers
9
Pacers 56%
$1.7K
-$35.44
78.4¢ → 78¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidPacers at 78%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Pacersavg 79¢ | $421.86 | $416.52 | -$5.34 | 48% 2786-3040 (5826) |
GA Gaditima | Pacersavg 78¢ | $390 | $390 | +$0 | 47% 224-251 (475) |
FO forecastication4 | Pacersavg 78.1¢ | $349.34 | $348.85 | -$0.49 | 31% 134-299 (433) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Knicksavg 21.6¢ | $376.53 | $348.54 | -$27.99 | 36% 761-1361 (2122) |
 poshposh<$100 | Pacersavg 78¢ | $93.51 | $93.51 | +$0 | 46% 781-902 (1683) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Pacersavg 79.2¢ | $87.22 | $85.86 | -$1.36 | 49% 1306-1355 (2661) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Knicksavg 20¢ | $11.8 | $11.8 | -$0 | 35% 735-1379 (2114) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Knicksavg 20¢ | $4.47 | $4.47 | +$0 | 35% 749-1385 (2134) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Knicksavg 22¢ | $2.82 | $2.56 | -$0.26 | 34% 735-1404 (2139) |
Invested
$421.86
Value
$416.52
PnL
-$5.34
Record
48%
2786-3040 (5826)
Invested
$390
Value
$390
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
224-251 (475)
Invested
$349.34
Value
$348.85
PnL
-$0.49
Record
31%
134-299 (433)
Invested
$376.53
Value
$348.54
PnL
-$27.99
Record
36%
761-1361 (2122)
poshposh<$100Invested
$93.51
Value
$93.51
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
781-902 (1683)
Invested
$87.22
Value
$85.86
PnL
-$1.36
Record
49%
1306-1355 (2661)
Invested
$11.8
Value
$11.8
PnL
-$0
Record
35%
735-1379 (2114)
Invested
$4.47
Value
$4.47
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
749-1385 (2134)
Invested
$2.82
Value
$2.56
PnL
-$0.26
Record
34%
735-1404 (2139)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.