Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (62%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Knicks vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 38¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 43%
$2.8K
-$276.55
48.2¢ → 38¢
-21% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 38%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 62%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 55¢ | $1.1K | $935.03 | -$201 | 54% 16884-14152 (31036) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Overavg 51.5¢ | $870.18 | $844.02 | -$26.16 | 49% 559-583 (1142) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $560.51 | $463.62 | -$96.89 | 54% 3824-3298 (7122) |
BU BullishBarbCTR | Overavg 39¢ | $260.52 | $334 | +$73.48 | 43% 2996-4016 (7012) |
SU SunlineTicker | Underavg 59¢ | $153.99 | $130.5 | -$23.49 | 62% 4023-2463 (6486) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Underavg 47.4¢ | $93.45 | $87.67 | -$5.78 | 54% 10476-9103 (19579) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $41.43 | $44.74 | +$3.31 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
Invested
$1,136.04
Value
$935.03
PnL
-$201
Record
54%
16884-14152 (31036)
Invested
$870.18
Value
$844.02
PnL
-$26.16
Record
49%
559-583 (1142)
Invested
$560.51
Value
$463.62
PnL
-$96.89
Record
54%
3824-3298 (7122)
Invested
$260.52
Value
$334
PnL
+$73.48
Record
43%
2996-4016 (7012)
Invested
$153.99
Value
$130.5
PnL
-$23.49
Record
62%
4023-2463 (6486)
Invested
$93.45
Value
$87.67
PnL
-$5.78
Record
54%
10476-9103 (19579)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$41.43
Value
$44.74
PnL
+$3.31
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.