Knicks vs. Bulls: O/U 235.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 58¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 29

Over42¢Under58¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$61.3

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 58¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 58%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over42%

Under58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares6,776

Combined PnL+$175.13

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,567

Combined PnL-$113.83

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO mooseborzoii	Underavg 54.9¢	$3.3K	$3.5K	+$156.65	50% 1138-1132 (2270)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Overavg 45¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$75	47% 2405-2688 (5093)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 45¢	$450	$425	-$25	53% 5499-4842 (10341)
TO tomb2456	Underavg 55¢	$390.7	$408.46	+$17.76	50% 275-273 (548)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 44.6¢	$231.02	$217.78	-$13.24	58% 40752-29469 (70221)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Underavg 56.1¢	$15.51	$16.04	+$0.53	62% 4022-2462 (6484)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$13.69	$13.53	-$0.17	58% 28121-20725 (48846)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 56¢	$7.28	$7.48	+$0.19	54% 2922-2509 (5431)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$4.5	$4.25	-$0.25	56% 6910-5525 (12435)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.1	-$0.18	47% 2041-2345 (4386)

mooseborzoii

Under

Invested

$3,307.62

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$156.65

Record

50%

1138-1132 (2270)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Over

Invested

$1,350

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$75

Record

47%

2405-2688 (5093)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$450

Value

$425

PnL

-$25

Record

53%

5499-4842 (10341)

tomb2456

Under

Invested

$390.7

Value

$408.46

PnL

+$17.76

Record

50%

275-273 (548)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$231.02

Value

$217.78

PnL

-$13.24

Record

58%

40752-29469 (70221)

SunlineTicker<$100

Under

Invested

$15.51

Value

$16.04

PnL

+$0.53

Record

62%

4022-2462 (6484)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.69

Value

$13.53

PnL

-$0.17

Record

58%

28121-20725 (48846)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$7.28

Value

$7.48

PnL

+$0.19

Record

54%

2922-2509 (5431)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.25

PnL

-$0.25

Record

56%

6910-5525 (12435)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.18

Record

47%

2041-2345 (4386)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 58%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.