Knicks vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 54¢ · $14K held · ends Oct 29

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.5K

Combined PnL

$123.23

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 53.5¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares13,846

Combined PnL+$260.92

Over6 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares5,880

Combined PnL-$137.69

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO mooseborzoii	Underavg 50.4¢	$5.9K	$6.2K	+$250.58	50% 1138-1132 (2270)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 48.7¢	$3.6K	$3.5K	+$30.4	54% 16864-14141 (31005)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.7¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$71.21
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$750.35	$851.96	+$101.61
WO woshikd99CTR	Overavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$74.71	50% 31-31 (62)
BA Bayupati	Underavg 48¢	$984	$1.1K	+$10.25	51% 193-189 (382)
BU BullishBarbCTR	Overavg 49.6¢	$919.02	$845.93	-$36.75	38% 848-1408 (2256)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 50¢	$500	$475	-$25	53% 5499-4842 (10341)
SL slimjoeCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$21.07	$20.42	-$0.65	51% 6452-6117 (12569)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 49.7¢	$14.51	$13.87	-$0.64	56% 6910-5525 (12435)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 52¢	$9.36	$9.45	+$0.09	54% 2922-2509 (5431)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$2.31	$2.36	+$0.05	58% 28121-20725 (48846)

mooseborzoii

Under

Invested

$5,933.13

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$250.58

Record

50%

1138-1132 (2270)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,574.28

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$30.4

Record

54%

16864-14141 (31005)

Both legs:

Over$2,823.9348.7¢-$71.21

Under$750.3548¢+$101.61

woshikd99CTR

Over

Invested

$1,501.51

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$74.71

Record

50%

31-31 (62)

Bayupati

Under

Invested

$984

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10.25

Record

51%

193-189 (382)

BullishBarbCTR

Over

Invested

$919.02

Value

$845.93

PnL

-$36.75

Record

38%

848-1408 (2256)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$500

Value

$475

PnL

-$25

Record

53%

5499-4842 (10341)

slimjoeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.07

Value

$20.42

PnL

-$0.65

Record

51%

6452-6117 (12569)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.51

Value

$13.87

PnL

-$0.64

Record

56%

6910-5525 (12435)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$9.36

Value

$9.45

PnL

+$0.09

Record

54%

2922-2509 (5431)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.31

Value

$2.36

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

28121-20725 (48846)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.