Knicks vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 52¢ · $677 held · ends Oct 29

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$676.69

Combined PnL

$6.21

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 51.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$538.04

Total Shares1,045

Combined PnL+$4.7

Under3 traders

Total Value$138.65

Total Shares288

Combined PnL+$1.51

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 51.1¢	$530.82	$535.47	+$4.65	54% 16865-14143 (31008)
FF ff3364CTR	Underavg 48¢	$120	$120	+$0	50% 786-785 (1571)
BU BullishBarbCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$9.03	$10.29	+$1.26	38% 848-1408 (2256)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 47.5¢	$8.11	$8.36	+$0.25	56% 6913-5526 (12439)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.58	+$0.05	47% 2044-2347 (4391)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$530.82

Value

$535.47

PnL

+$4.65

Record

54%

16865-14143 (31008)

ff3364CTR

Under

Invested

$120

Value

$120

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

786-785 (1571)

BullishBarbCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.03

Value

$10.29

PnL

+$1.26

Record

38%

848-1408 (2256)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.11

Value

$8.36

PnL

+$0.25

Record

56%

6913-5526 (12439)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.58

PnL

+$0.05

Record

47%

2044-2347 (4391)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.