Knicks vs. Bulls: O/U 229.5
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 67¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Over
8
Over 38%
$8.0K
$271.7
57.6¢ → 67¢
+16% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 67%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 57.8¢ | $6.1K | $6.2K | +$119.11 | 54% 16884-14152 (31036) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Underavg 44.5¢ | $495.99 | $557.3 | +$61.3 | 49% 559-583 (1142) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 43¢ | $430 | $500 | +$70 | 58% 40917-29601 (70518) |
TA takeormake | Overavg 54.3¢ | $307.13 | $283 | -$24.13 | 54% 3824-3298 (7122) |
BU BullishBarbCTR | Underavg 46¢ | $191.82 | $208.5 | +$16.68 | 43% 2996-4016 (7012) |
WO woshikd99CTR | Underavg 44¢ | $173.66 | $197.5 | +$23.84 | 51% 32-31 (63) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $45 | $50 | +$5 | 50% 3721-3695 (7416) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $1.1 | $1 | -$0.1 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
Invested
$6,101.49
Value
$6.2K
PnL
+$119.11
Record
54%
16884-14152 (31036)
Invested
$495.99
Value
$557.3
PnL
+$61.3
Record
49%
559-583 (1142)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$430
Value
$500
PnL
+$70
Record
58%
40917-29601 (70518)
Invested
$307.13
Value
$283
PnL
-$24.13
Record
54%
3824-3298 (7122)
Invested
$191.82
Value
$208.5
PnL
+$16.68
Record
43%
2996-4016 (7012)
Invested
$173.66
Value
$197.5
PnL
+$23.84
Record
51%
32-31 (63)
Invested
$45
Value
$50
PnL
+$5
Record
50%
3721-3695 (7416)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.1
Value
$1
PnL
-$0.1
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.