Spread: Knicks (-9.5)

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (43%) · Bulls at 96¢ · $17K held · ended Oct 29

Knicks4¢Bulls96¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.0K

Combined PnL

$227.5

Smart Money Entry

64.7¢ → 96¢

+48% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

6 of 14 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks4%

Bulls96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls6 traders

Total Value$12.3K

Total Shares17,285

Combined PnL+$305.06

Knicks8 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares6,279

Combined PnL-$77.56

Bulls — 43%Knicks — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
aibaby	Bullsavg 75.9¢	$4.8K	$4.9K	+$130.37	53% 100-90 (190)
HO HomeRunHazard	Bullsavg 59.4¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$161.7	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
VeryLucky888	Bullsavg 56.9¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$27.47	58% 40917-29601 (70518)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Knicksavg 27.8¢	$1.6K	$2.2K	+$601.82	54% 3824-3298 (7122)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 27.8¢	$912.8	$1.5K	+$600.16
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 53.7¢	$724.46	$726.12	+$1.66
GA gagarin59CTR	Knicksavg 40¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$66.63	52% 657-608 (1265)
heyboy800	Bullsavg 55.1¢	$550.65	$518.49	-$32.16	61% 883-558 (1441)
AN Anon455CTR	Knicksavg 42¢	$420	$425	+$5	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Knicksavg 44.6¢	$461.07	$359.86	-$101.21	54% 10476-9103 (19579)
HRTradingCTR	Knicksavg 31.2¢	$162.52	$251.05	+$88.53	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
SH shoemanhere	Bullsavg 66.2¢	$225.65	$226.67	+$1.02	56% 7043-5449 (12492)
WO woshikd99	Bullsavg 62.6¢	$154.98	$171.65	+$16.67	51% 32-31 (63)
RO rocky42019CTR	Knicksavg 33.8¢	$101.4	$100.5	-$0.9	42% 1675-2291 (3966)
US User7429CTR<$100	Knicksavg 38.1¢	$56.04	$51.23	-$4.82	55% 8126-6560 (14686)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Knicksavg 46¢	$31.59	$31.69	+$2.37	49% 559-583 (1142)
RN1CTR<$100	Knicksavg 42¢	$7.24	$7.33	+$0.09	54% 55844-47942 (103786)

aibaby

Bulls

Invested

$4,814.93

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$130.37

Record

53%

100-90 (190)

HomeRunHazard

Bulls

Invested

$3,685.87

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$161.7

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

VeryLucky888

Bulls

Invested

$2,558.71

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$27.47

Record

58%

40917-29601 (70518)

takeormakeARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$1,637.26

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$601.82

Record

54%

3824-3298 (7122)

Both legs:

Knicks$912.827.8¢+$600.16

Bulls$724.4653.7¢+$1.66

gagarin59CTR

Knicks

Invested

$1,332.5

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$66.63

Record

52%

657-608 (1265)

heyboy800

Bulls

Invested

$550.65

Value

$518.49

PnL

-$32.16

Record

61%

883-558 (1441)

Anon455CTR

Knicks

Invested

$420

Value

$425

PnL

+$5

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

justaluckydudeCTR

Knicks

Invested

$461.07

Value

$359.86

PnL

-$101.21

Record

54%

10476-9103 (19579)

HRTradingCTR

Knicks

Invested

$162.52

Value

$251.05

PnL

+$88.53

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

shoemanhere

Bulls

Invested

$225.65

Value

$226.67

PnL

+$1.02

Record

56%

7043-5449 (12492)

woshikd99

Bulls

Invested

$154.98

Value

$171.65

PnL

+$16.67

Record

51%

32-31 (63)

rocky42019CTR

Knicks

Invested

$101.4

Value

$100.5

PnL

-$0.9

Record

42%

1675-2291 (3966)

User7429CTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$56.04

Value

$51.23

PnL

-$4.82

Record

55%

8126-6560 (14686)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$31.59

Value

$31.69

PnL

+$2.37

Record

49%

559-583 (1142)

RN1CTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$7.24

Value

$7.33

PnL

+$0.09

Record

54%

55844-47942 (103786)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

6 of 14 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.2%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.