Spread: Knicks (-8.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (83%) · Bulls at 68¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Bulls
6
Bulls 83%
2 arb excluded
$5.8K
$23.55
54.4¢ → 68¢
+25% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidBulls at 68%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Bullsavg 57.2¢ | $4.2K | $4.2K | -$60.74 | 54% 16884-14152 (31036) |
| └ Bulls leg | Bullsavg 57.2¢ | $2.7K | $2.8K | +$86.14 | |
| └ Knicks leg | Knicksavg 45.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | -$146.89 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Knicksavg 45.9¢ | $887.78 | $900.2 | +$12.43 | 49% 559-583 (1142) |
| └ Knicks leg | Knicksavg 45.9¢ | $562.21 | $545 | -$17.2 | |
| └ Bulls leg | Bullsavg 50.9¢ | $325.57 | $355.2 | +$29.63 | |
SU SunlineTicker | Bullsavg 55¢ | $439.45 | $443.45 | +$4 | 62% 4023-2463 (6486) |
 VeryLucky888 | Bullsavg 53¢ | $210.9 | $220.85 | +$9.95 | 58% 40917-29601 (70518) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Bullsavg 55¢ | $56.65 | $64.38 | +$7.73 | 54% 10476-9103 (19579) |
 RN1<$100 | Bullsavg 55¢ | $30.15 | $30.42 | +$0.27 | 54% 55844-47942 (103786) |
BU BullishBarb<$100 | Bullsavg 56¢ | $11.9 | $12.96 | +$1.06 | 43% 2996-4016 (7012) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Knicksavg 42¢ | $9.24 | $9.79 | +$0.55 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
Invested
$4,221.8
Value
$4.2K
PnL
-$60.74
Record
54%
16884-14152 (31036)
Both legs:
Invested
$887.78
Value
$900.2
PnL
+$12.43
Record
49%
559-583 (1142)
Both legs:
Invested
$439.45
Value
$443.45
PnL
+$4
Record
62%
4023-2463 (6486)
VeryLucky888Invested
$210.9
Value
$220.85
PnL
+$9.95
Record
58%
40917-29601 (70518)
Invested
$56.65
Value
$64.38
PnL
+$7.73
Record
54%
10476-9103 (19579)
RN1<$100Invested
$30.15
Value
$30.42
PnL
+$0.27
Record
54%
55844-47942 (103786)
Invested
$11.9
Value
$12.96
PnL
+$1.06
Record
43%
2996-4016 (7012)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$9.24
Value
$9.79
PnL
+$0.55
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.