Spread: Knicks (-7.5)

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (33%) · Bulls at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29

Knicks48¢Bulls52¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 33%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$13.35

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 52.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks48%

Bulls53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,252

Combined PnL+$11.42

Knicks4 traders

Total Value$477.91

Total Shares996

Combined PnL+$1.93

Bulls — 33%Knicks — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Bullsavg 52¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$11.1	54% 3823-3297 (7120)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Knicksavg 47¢	$239.06	$244.15	+$5.09	54% 16865-14143 (31008)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR	Knicksavg 49¢	$196	$192	-$4	54% 375-322 (697)
BU BullishBarbCTR<$100	Knicksavg 47¢	$39.48	$40.32	+$0.84	38% 848-1408 (2256)
PU purplegatto<$100	Bullsavg 51¢	$16.61	$16.94	+$0.33	50% 5775-5881 (11656)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Knicksavg 48¢	$1.44	$1.44	+$0	50% 6813-6826 (13639)

takeormake

Bulls

Invested

$1,154.16

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$11.1

Record

54%

3823-3297 (7120)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Knicks

Invested

$239.06

Value

$244.15

PnL

+$5.09

Record

54%

16865-14143 (31008)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR

Knicks

Invested

$196

Value

$192

PnL

-$4

Record

54%

375-322 (697)

BullishBarbCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$39.48

Value

$40.32

PnL

+$0.84

Record

38%

848-1408 (2256)

purplegatto<$100

Bulls

Invested

$16.61

Value

$16.94

PnL

+$0.33

Record

50%

5775-5881 (11656)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$1.44

Value

$1.44

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

6813-6826 (13639)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.