Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Knicks, while the market favors Bulls (58%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Knicks (-5.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (58%) · Knicks at 42¢ · $16K held · ended Oct 29

Knicks42¢Bulls58¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Knicks

Consensus Traders

Knicks 58%

Total Value

$15.6K

Combined PnL

$282.7

Smart Money Entry

55.8¢ → 42¢

-25% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Bulls 58%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks42%

Bulls58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks7 traders

Total Value$12.9K

Total Shares17,813

Combined PnL+$142.44

Bulls5 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares5,015

Combined PnL+$140.25

Knicks — 58%Bulls — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Knicksavg 55.8¢	$9.4K	$9.5K	+$88.77	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
VeryLucky888CTR	Knicksavg 56¢	$3.1K	$2.8K	+$56.92	58% 40917-29601 (70518)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Bullsavg 47.9¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$157.82	49% 559-583 (1142)
TO torta.tech	Bullsavg 44.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$31.05	63% 7985-4775 (12760)
BU BullishBarbCTR	Knicksavg 52¢	$288.73	$285.95	-$2.78	43% 2996-4016 (7012)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR	Knicksavg 57¢	$240.6	$238.49	-$2.11	54% 375-323 (698)
JU justaluckydude	Bullsavg 44¢	$86.24	$100.94	+$14.7	54% 10476-9103 (19579)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Bullsavg 45.1¢	$55.83	$53.87	-$1.95	53% 6109-5348 (11457)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Knicksavg 52¢	$34.65	$36.22	+$1.57	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
FO forecastication4<$100	Bullsavg 42¢	$20.49	$21.23	+$0.73	49% 1130-1160 (2290)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Knicksavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.82	+$0.02	47% 2102-2381 (4483)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Knicksavg 53¢	$0.67	$0.71	+$0.04	56% 2651-2105 (4756)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Knicks

Invested

$9,411.69

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$88.77

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

VeryLucky888CTR

Knicks

Invested

$3,063.86

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$56.92

Record

58%

40917-29601 (70518)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Bulls

Invested

$1,339.81

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$157.82

Record

49%

559-583 (1142)

torta.tech

Bulls

Invested

$1,108.54

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$31.05

Record

63%

7985-4775 (12760)

BullishBarbCTR

Knicks

Invested

$288.73

Value

$285.95

PnL

-$2.78

Record

43%

2996-4016 (7012)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR

Knicks

Invested

$240.6

Value

$238.49

PnL

-$2.11

Record

54%

375-323 (698)

justaluckydude

Bulls

Invested

$86.24

Value

$100.94

PnL

+$14.7

Record

54%

10476-9103 (19579)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Bulls

Invested

$55.83

Value

$53.87

PnL

-$1.95

Record

53%

6109-5348 (11457)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$34.65

Value

$36.22

PnL

+$1.57

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

forecastication4<$100

Bulls

Invested

$20.49

Value

$21.23

PnL

+$0.73

Record

49%

1130-1160 (2290)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.82

PnL

+$0.02

Record

47%

2102-2381 (4483)

Anon455CTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$0.67

Value

$0.71

PnL

+$0.04

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Bulls 58%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Knicks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.2%

42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$126.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

226.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.