Spread: Knicks (-4.5)

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (75%) · Knicks at 60¢ · $955 held · ended Oct 29

Knicks60¢Bulls40¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Knicks

Consensus Traders

Knicks 75%

Total Value

$955.3

Combined PnL

-$0.42

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 60¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks60%

Bulls40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks3 traders

Total Value$870.15

Total Shares1,449

Combined PnL+$1.28

Bulls1 trader

Total Value$85.15

Total Shares170

Combined PnL-$1.7

Knicks — 75%Bulls — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Knicksavg 60¢	$753.75	$740.96	+$0.21	58% 40871-29553 (70424)
BU BullishBarb	Knicksavg 60¢	$119.79	$120.79	+$1	43% 2996-4016 (7012)
GO goldmynameCTR<$100	Bullsavg 41¢	$87.04	$85.15	-$1.7	60% 117-77 (194)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Knicksavg 59¢	$8.26	$8.4	+$0.07	58% 28150-20748 (48898)

VeryLucky888

Knicks

Invested

$753.75

Value

$740.96

PnL

+$0.21

Record

58%

40871-29553 (70424)

BullishBarb

Knicks

Invested

$119.79

Value

$120.79

PnL

+$1

Record

43%

2996-4016 (7012)

goldmynameCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$87.04

Value

$85.15

PnL

-$1.7

Record

60%

117-77 (194)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Knicks

Invested

$8.26

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$0.07

Record

58%

28150-20748 (48898)

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Knicks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.