Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bulls, while the market favors Knicks (51%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Knicks (-3.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (50%) · Bulls at 50¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Bulls
4
Bulls 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.8K
$100
40.7¢ → 49.5¢
+22% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidBulls at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Knicksavg 58¢ | $913.01 | $942.61 | +$29.59 | 54% 16884-14152 (31036) |
| └ Bulls leg | Bullsavg 40.9¢ | $430.57 | $526.95 | +$96.37 | |
| └ Knicks leg | Knicksavg 58¢ | $482.44 | $415.66 | -$66.78 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Bullsavg 42¢ | $470.24 | $559.81 | +$89.57 | 49% 559-583 (1142) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Bullsavg 36¢ | $115.38 | $160.26 | +$44.87 | 54% 3824-3298 (7122) |
 RN1 | Knicksavg 61¢ | $153.09 | $125.79 | -$27.29 | 54% 55844-47942 (103786) |
BU BullishBarb<$100 | Knicksavg 61¢ | $39.65 | $32.5 | -$7.15 | 43% 2996-4016 (7012) |
Invested
$913.01
Value
$942.61
PnL
+$29.59
Record
54%
16884-14152 (31036)
Both legs:
Invested
$470.24
Value
$559.81
PnL
+$89.57
Record
49%
559-583 (1142)
Invested
$115.38
Value
$160.26
PnL
+$44.87
Record
54%
3824-3298 (7122)
RN1Invested
$153.09
Value
$125.79
PnL
-$27.29
Record
54%
55844-47942 (103786)
Invested
$39.65
Value
$32.5
PnL
-$7.15
Record
43%
2996-4016 (7012)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.