Spread: Knicks (-10.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (40%) · Bulls at 97¢ · $23K held · ended Oct 29

Knicks3¢Bulls97¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.3K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

84.4¢ → 97.1¢

+15% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks3%

Bulls97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls4 traders

Total Value$16.5K

Total Shares19,092

Combined PnL+$399.51

Knicks6 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares22,796

Combined PnL+$865.45

Bulls — 40%Knicks — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
aibaby	Bullsavg 84.9¢	$15.9K	$16.3K	+$389.91	53% 100-90 (190)
GA gagarin59CTR	Knicksavg 15¢	$2.2K	$3.6K	+$1.4K	52% 657-608 (1265)
TA takeormakeCTR	Knicksavg 36.9¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$11.87	54% 3824-3298 (7122)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Knicksavg 55.3¢	$951.12	$639.44	-$311.68	54% 10476-9103 (19579)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Knicksavg 40.4¢	$424.65	$414.84	-$9.81	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
AN Anon455CTR	Knicksavg 23.1¢	$495.95	$278.85	-$217.1	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
BU BullishBarbCTR	Knicksavg 38.9¢	$174.32	$176.96	+$2.64	43% 2996-4016 (7012)
HRTradingARB<$100	Bullsavg 69¢	$150.82	$176.58	+$25.76	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 23¢	$52.84	$90.67	+$37.83
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 69¢	$97.98	$85.91	-$12.07
RollAwayTheDew	Bullsavg 61¢	$136.66	$135.54	-$1.12	53% 319-288 (607)
WO woshikd99<$100	Bullsavg 55¢	$53.9	$61.59	+$7.69	51% 32-31 (63)
US User7429<$100	Bullsavg 58.3¢	$39.08	$42.11	+$3.03	55% 8126-6560 (14686)

aibaby

Bulls

Invested

$15,881.35

Value

$16.3K

PnL

+$389.91

Record

53%

100-90 (190)

gagarin59CTR

Knicks

Invested

$2,178.13

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

52%

657-608 (1265)

takeormakeCTR

Knicks

Invested

$1,510.65

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$11.87

Record

54%

3824-3298 (7122)

justaluckydudeCTR

Knicks

Invested

$951.12

Value

$639.44

PnL

-$311.68

Record

54%

10476-9103 (19579)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Knicks

Invested

$424.65

Value

$414.84

PnL

-$9.81

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

Anon455CTR

Knicks

Invested

$495.95

Value

$278.85

PnL

-$217.1

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

BullishBarbCTR

Knicks

Invested

$174.32

Value

$176.96

PnL

+$2.64

Record

43%

2996-4016 (7012)

HRTradingARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$150.82

Value

$176.58

PnL

+$25.76

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

Both legs:

Knicks$52.8423¢+$37.83

Bulls$97.9869¢-$12.07

RollAwayTheDew

Bulls

Invested

$136.66

Value

$135.54

PnL

-$1.12

Record

53%

319-288 (607)

woshikd99<$100

Bulls

Invested

$53.9

Value

$61.59

PnL

+$7.69

Record

51%

32-31 (63)

User7429<$100

Bulls

Invested

$39.08

Value

$42.11

PnL

+$3.03

Record

55%

8126-6560 (14686)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.2%

97.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.