Knicks vs. Bulls

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (50%) · Knicks at 70¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 29

Knicks70¢Bulls30¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Knicks

Consensus Traders

Knicks 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$32.03

Smart Money Entry

70.9¢ → 69.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks70%

Bulls31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks3 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,477

Combined PnL-$47.76

Bulls3 traders

Total Value$999.11

Total Shares3,330

Combined PnL+$15.73

Knicks — 50%Bulls — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Bulls) and the top 1000 (5 on Knicks) disagree here.

whaleBulls 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrKnicks 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Knicks 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AC acorp	Knicksavg 70¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$12.41	49% 613-627 (1240)
GO goldmynameCTR	Bullsavg 30¢	$943.8	$943.8	+$15.73	60% 117-77 (194)
RollAwayTheDew	Knicksavg 73.1¢	$718.75	$688.32	-$35.35	52% 308-285 (593)
BU BullishBarbARB<$100	Bullsavg 27¢	$157.27	$166.39	+$9.12	1% 4-285 (289)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 27¢	$102.6	$112.1	+$9.5
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 71¢	$54.67	$54.29	-$0.39
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Bullsavg 30¢	$34.61	$34.61	-$0	42% 1675-2290 (3965)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Bullsavg 30¢	$20.7	$20.7	+$0	53% 15728-13898 (29626)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Knicksavg 70¢	$8.4	$8.4	+$0	58% 28094-20712 (48806)

acorp

Knicks

Invested

$1,737.4

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$12.41

Record

49%

613-627 (1240)

goldmynameCTR

Bulls

Invested

$943.8

Value

$943.8

PnL

+$15.73

Record

60%

117-77 (194)

RollAwayTheDew

Knicks

Invested

$718.75

Value

$688.32

PnL

-$35.35

Record

52%

308-285 (593)

BullishBarbARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$157.27

Value

$166.39

PnL

+$9.12

Record

4-285 (289)

Both legs:

Bulls$102.627¢+$9.5

Knicks$54.6771¢-$0.39

rocky42019CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$34.61

Value

$34.61

PnL

-$0

Record

42%

1675-2290 (3965)

CannaeCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$20.7

Value

$20.7

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

15728-13898 (29626)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Knicks

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

28094-20712 (48806)

Research grade

AvoidKnicks at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Knicks

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Bulls) and the top 1000 (5 on Knicks) disagree here.

whaleBulls 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrKnicks 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Knicks 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Knicks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.