Pelicans vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 54¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 33%
$4.8K
$156.43
50.9¢ → 53.5¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 50.9¢ | $6.4K | $3.4K | +$168.66 | 54% 17506-14710 (32216) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR | Overavg 48¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$0 | 47% 2622-2922 (5544) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Overavg 50¢ | $155 | $148.8 | -$7.75 | 53% 5749-5085 (10834) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $54.19 | $49.59 | -$4.6 | 51% 997-961 (1958) |
HE Herdonia<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $6.39 | $6.51 | +$0.12 | 54% 3477-3013 (6490) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.4 | +$0 | 52% 7639-6913 (14552) |
Invested
$6,401.45
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$168.66
Record
54%
17506-14710 (32216)
Invested
$1,136.62
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$0
Record
47%
2622-2922 (5544)
Invested
$155
Value
$148.8
PnL
-$7.75
Record
53%
5749-5085 (10834)
Invested
$54.19
Value
$49.59
PnL
-$4.6
Record
51%
997-961 (1958)
Invested
$6.39
Value
$6.51
PnL
+$0.12
Record
54%
3477-3013 (6490)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
7639-6913 (14552)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.