Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (25%) · Pelicans at 52¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Pelicans
4
Pelicans 25%
1 arb excluded
$3.1K
-$14.12
Research grade
AvoidPelicans at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-8 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Pelicans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AP AppleTiiime | Pelicansavg 52¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | -$20.62 | — 7-6 (13) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Grizzliesavg 48¢ | $467.78 | $472.65 | +$4.87 | 58% 43595-31708 (75303) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Grizzliesavg 48¢ | $240 | $240 | +$0 | 53% 5747-5084 (10831) |
HE HerdoniaCTR | Grizzliesavg 48¢ | $156.46 | $158.09 | +$1.63 | 54% 3476-3013 (6489) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Pelicansavg 52¢ | $225.92 | $79.32 | -$1 | 47% 12988-14555 (27543) |
| └ Pelicans leg | Pelicansavg 52¢ | $52 | $51 | -$1 | |
| └ Grizzlies leg | Grizzliesavg 48¢ | $28.32 | $28.32 | +$0 |
Invested
$2,144.85
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$20.62
Record
—
7-6 (13)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$467.78
Value
$472.65
PnL
+$4.87
Record
58%
43595-31708 (75303)
Invested
$240
Value
$240
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5747-5084 (10831)
Invested
$156.46
Value
$158.09
PnL
+$1.63
Record
54%
3476-3013 (6489)
Invested
$225.92
Value
$79.32
PnL
-$1
Record
47%
12988-14555 (27543)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.