Spread: Warriors (-8.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (60%) · Warriors at 54¢ · $726 held · ends Nov 10

Warriors54¢Pelicans46¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Warriors

Consensus Traders

Warriors 60%

Total Value

$726

Combined PnL

-$23.53

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 53.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Warriors54%

Pelicans47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Warriors3 traders

Total Value$672.78

Total Shares1,346

Combined PnL-$26.91

Pelicans2 traders

Total Value$52.98

Total Shares106

Combined PnL+$3.38

Warriors — 60%Pelicans — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Warriorsavg 52¢	$556.69	$535.28	-$21.41	—
RN1	Warriorsavg 52¢	$130	$125	-$5	—
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 47¢	$40.4	$42.98	+$2.58	—
PA Pan9X<$100	Warriorsavg 52¢	$13	$12.5	-$0.5	—
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 46¢	$9.2	$10	+$0.8	—

HomeRunHazard

Warriors

Invested

$556.69

Value

$535.28

PnL

-$21.41

Record

—

RN1

Warriors

Invested

$130

Value

$125

PnL

-$5

Record

—

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$40.4

Value

$42.98

PnL

+$2.58

Record

—

Pan9X<$100

Warriors

Invested

$13

Value

$12.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

—

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$9.2

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.8

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.