Spread: Warriors (-7.5)

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (36%) · Warriors at 64¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 10

Warriors64¢Pelicans36¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Warriors

Consensus Traders

Warriors 36%

Total Value

$15.1K

Combined PnL

$31.92

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 63.5¢

+8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Warriors64%

Pelicans37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Warriors4 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares15,381

Combined PnL+$687.93

Pelicans7 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares14,647

Combined PnL-$656.01

Warriors — 36%Pelicans — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Warriors) and the top 1000 (8 on Pelicans) disagree here.

ctrPelicans 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedWarriors 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Pelicans 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Warriorsavg 59¢	$8.9K	$9.5K	+$676.5	49% 60-63 (123)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Pelicansavg 41¢	$5.3K	$4.7K	-$578.52	30% 29-67 (96)
HI hi774cCTR	Pelicansavg 41¢	$561.06	$499.48	-$61.58	3% 9-249 (258)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Warriorsavg 60¢	$194.42	$205.9	+$11.48	2% 4-203 (207)
RN1CTR	Pelicansavg 41¢	$102.5	$91.25	-$11.25	54% 233-201 (434)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Pelicansavg 41¢	$60.35	$57.41	-$2.94	49% 383-404 (787)
PU purplegatto<$100	Warriorsavg 64¢	$16.16	$16.03	-$0.13	2% 3-161 (164)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 41¢	$10.25	$9.13	-$1.13	48% 173-188 (361)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Pelicansavg 36¢	$7.29	$7.39	+$0.1	5% 21-415 (436)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Pelicansavg 40¢	$8	$7.3	-$0.7	69% 29-13 (42)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Warriorsavg 62¢	$3.1	$3.18	+$0.08	48% 129-139 (268)

VeryLucky888

Warriors

Invested

$8,876.12

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$676.5

Record

49%

60-63 (123)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$5,270.93

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$578.52

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

hi774cCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$561.06

Value

$499.48

PnL

-$61.58

Record

9-249 (258)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Warriors

Invested

$194.42

Value

$205.9

PnL

+$11.48

Record

4-203 (207)

RN1CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$102.5

Value

$91.25

PnL

-$11.25

Record

54%

233-201 (434)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$60.35

Value

$57.41

PnL

-$2.94

Record

49%

383-404 (787)

purplegatto<$100

Warriors

Invested

$16.16

Value

$16.03

PnL

-$0.13

Record

3-161 (164)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$10.25

Value

$9.13

PnL

-$1.13

Record

48%

173-188 (361)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$7.29

Value

$7.39

PnL

+$0.1

Record

21-415 (436)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

Value

$7.3

PnL

-$0.7

Record

69%

29-13 (42)

6512395314597884<$100

Warriors

Invested

$3.1

Value

$3.18

PnL

+$0.08

Record

48%

129-139 (268)

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Warriors) and the top 1000 (8 on Pelicans) disagree here.

ctrPelicans 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedWarriors 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Pelicans 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.