Pelicans vs. Warriors

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (33%) · Warriors at 80¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 10

Pelicans21¢Warriors79¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Warriors

Consensus Traders

Warriors 33%

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$2.03

Smart Money Entry

79.4¢ → 79.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pelicans21%

Warriors80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Warriors3 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares8,891

Combined PnL+$11.42

Pelicans6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares5,840

Combined PnL-$9.39

Warriors — 33%Pelicans — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperWarriors 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPelicans 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Pelicans 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bigbeliever	Warriorsavg 79.3¢	$6.9K	$6.9K	+$18.56	— 2-3 (5)
HI hi774cCTR	Pelicansavg 20.8¢	$841.17	$827.15	-$14.02	46% 5629-6541 (12170)
GA Gaditima	Warriorsavg 82.9¢	$188.01	$180.26	-$7.75	47% 8644-9781 (18425)
38 38791873984189CTR	Pelicansavg 20¢	$130	$133.25	+$3.25	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Pelicansavg 24¢	$125.22	$111.61	-$13.61	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 21¢	$50.8	$49.75	-$1.05	48% 8328-8887 (17215)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 14¢	$29.21	$46.07	+$16.85	14% 9498-60732 (70230)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 21.1¢	$43.85	$43.04	-$0.82	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Warriorsavg 74.1¢	$8.39	$8.94	+$0.61	51% 5685-5538 (11223)

bigbeliever

Warriors

Invested

$6,860.21

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$18.56

Record

—

2-3 (5)

hi774cCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$841.17

Value

$827.15

PnL

-$14.02

Record

46%

5629-6541 (12170)

Gaditima

Warriors

Invested

$188.01

Value

$180.26

PnL

-$7.75

Record

47%

8644-9781 (18425)

38791873984189CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$130

Value

$133.25

PnL

+$3.25

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

SnakeBallCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$125.22

Value

$111.61

PnL

-$13.61

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

OddstormCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$50.8

Value

$49.75

PnL

-$1.05

Record

48%

8328-8887 (17215)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$29.21

Value

$46.07

PnL

+$16.85

Record

14%

9498-60732 (70230)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$43.85

Value

$43.04

PnL

-$0.82

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

6512395314597884<$100

Warriors

Invested

$8.39

Value

$8.94

PnL

+$0.61

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperWarriors 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPelicans 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Pelicans 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.