Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (60%). 2 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 229.5

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 41¢ · $81K held · ended Nov 1

Over60¢Under40¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 20%

Total Value

$81.0K

Combined PnL

-$40.32

Smart Money Entry

49.8¢ → 40.5¢

-19% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 10 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over60%

Under41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$42.1K

Total Shares85,035

Combined PnL-$264.05

Over8 traders

Total Value$38.9K

Total Shares77,006

Combined PnL+$223.73

Under — 20%Over — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justwinsCTR	Underavg 49.8¢	$42.3K	$42.1K	-$267.33	50% 166-163 (329)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 50.3¢	$19.7K	$19.8K	+$73.34	54% 17200-14430 (31630)
RollAwayTheDew	Overavg 50¢	$7.2K	$7.3K	+$71.88	53% 407-358 (765)
SU SunlineTicker	Overavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	+$50.06	62% 4162-2553 (6715)
HI hi774c	Overavg 50¢	$4.7K	$4.8K	+$47.25	52% 4749-4468 (9217)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 50.4¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$18.32	58% 42202-30652 (72854)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 50.4¢	$48.29	$47.81	-$0.48	58% 28900-21323 (50223)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$20	$20.47	+$3.27	50% 7925-7961 (15886)
GA GamblingAddict12345<$100	Overavg 50¢	$20	$20.2	+$0.2	51% 3941-3845 (7786)
NO Notradecopy<$100	Overavg 50¢	$20	$19.8	-$0.2	49% 3932-4120 (8052)

justwinsCTR

Under

Invested

$42,342.33

Value

$42.1K

PnL

-$267.33

Record

50%

166-163 (329)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$19,746.69

Value

$19.8K

PnL

+$73.34

Record

54%

17200-14430 (31630)

RollAwayTheDew

Over

Invested

$7,188.15

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$71.88

Record

53%

407-358 (765)

SunlineTicker

Over

Invested

$5,005.96

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$50.06

Record

62%

4162-2553 (6715)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$4,725.06

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$47.25

Record

52%

4749-4468 (9217)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$2,073.32

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$18.32

Record

58%

42202-30652 (72854)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$48.29

Value

$47.81

PnL

-$0.48

Record

58%

28900-21323 (50223)

RLWGCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$20.47

PnL

+$3.27

Record

50%

7925-7961 (15886)

GamblingAddict12345<$100

Over

Invested

$20

Value

$20.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

51%

3941-3845 (7786)

Notradecopy<$100

Over

Invested

$20

Value

$19.8

PnL

-$0.2

Record

49%

3932-4120 (8052)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 10 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.