Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 50%
$1.6K
$32.07
52.9¢ → 52.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RollAwayTheDew | Underavg 52¢ | $676 | $682.5 | +$6.5 | 53% 404-355 (759) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 52¢ | $432.13 | $436.28 | +$4.16 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
SU SunlineTicker | Underavg 56.1¢ | $319.3 | $331.35 | +$12.04 | 62% 4161-2553 (6714) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 44¢ | $110 | $120 | +$10 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 43.5¢ | $29.14 | $32.16 | -$1 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $6.75 | $7.13 | +$0.38 | 48% 2424-2645 (5069) |
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$676
Value
$682.5
PnL
+$6.5
Record
53%
404-355 (759)
Invested
$432.13
Value
$436.28
PnL
+$4.16
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$319.3
Value
$331.35
PnL
+$12.04
Record
62%
4161-2553 (6714)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$110
Value
$120
PnL
+$10
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
Invested
$29.14
Value
$32.16
PnL
-$1
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
Invested
$6.75
Value
$7.13
PnL
+$0.38
Record
48%
2424-2645 (5069)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.