Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 227.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 55¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 50%
1 arb excluded
$28.6K
$150.69
54¢ → 54.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Overavg 53.9¢ | $23.4K | $22.9K | -$453.83 | 54% 17200-14430 (31630) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 53.9¢ | $13.2K | $13.6K | +$393.69 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 48.5¢ | $10.2K | $9.4K | -$847.51 | |
SU SunlineTicker | Overavg 54¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$95.84 | 62% 4162-2553 (6715) |
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 54¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$52.19 | 59% 46230-32531 (78761) |
NA NatoAlfista | Overavg 54¢ | $126.9 | $130.43 | +$3.53 | 50% 3891-3854 (7745) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 48.5¢ | $21.82 | $21.6 | -$0.22 | 58% 28900-21323 (50223) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 46.4¢ | $15.21 | $14.6 | -$0.61 | 57% 13944-10725 (24669) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $2.28 | -$0.02 | 52% 7347-6663 (14010) |
Invested
$23,377.38
Value
$22.9K
PnL
-$453.83
Record
54%
17200-14430 (31630)
Both legs:
Invested
$3,450.06
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$95.84
Record
62%
4162-2553 (6715)
Invested
$1,878.93
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$52.19
Record
59%
46230-32531 (78761)
Invested
$126.9
Value
$130.43
PnL
+$3.53
Record
50%
3891-3854 (7745)
Invested
$21.82
Value
$21.6
PnL
-$0.22
Record
58%
28900-21323 (50223)
Invested
$15.21
Value
$14.6
PnL
-$0.61
Record
57%
13944-10725 (24669)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.28
PnL
-$0.02
Record
52%
7347-6663 (14010)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.