Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 226.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 51¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 60%
1 arb excluded
$4.1K
-$31.1
51¢ → 50.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494 | Overavg 51¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | -$29.63 | 54% 1265-1078 (2343) |
 VeryLucky888ARB<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $490 | $500 | +$10 | 58% 41846-30383 (72229) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 49¢ | $245 | $252.5 | +$7.5 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 49¢ | $245 | $247.5 | +$2.5 | |
HE HerdoniaCTR | Underavg 49¢ | $319.63 | $323.67 | +$4.05 | 54% 3356-2905 (6261) |
BA BayupatiCTR | Underavg 51¢ | $200.98 | $195.07 | -$5.91 | 51% 226-220 (446) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $31.36 | $32 | +$0.32 | 58% 28668-21156 (49824) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.53 | +$0.08 | 48% 2374-2612 (4986) |
Invested
$3,096.92
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$29.63
Record
54%
1265-1078 (2343)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100Invested
$490
Value
$500
PnL
+$10
Record
58%
41846-30383 (72229)
Both legs:
Invested
$319.63
Value
$323.67
PnL
+$4.05
Record
54%
3356-2905 (6261)
Invested
$200.98
Value
$195.07
PnL
-$5.91
Record
51%
226-220 (446)
Invested
$31.36
Value
$32
PnL
+$0.32
Record
58%
28668-21156 (49824)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.53
PnL
+$0.08
Record
48%
2374-2612 (4986)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.