Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 224.5

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (89%) · Under at 44¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 1

Over56¢Under44¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 89%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

47.3¢ → 43.5¢

-8% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$19.3K

Total Shares44,317

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Over1 trader

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares16,852

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Under — 89%Over — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpOver 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 46.7¢	$13.1K	$12.2K	$-1.3K	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
RO ropetard	Overavg 52¢	$8.8K	$9.5K	+$1.0K	58% 68-49 (117)
ComingBackCTR	Underavg 49¢	$4.7K	$4.2K	-$530.64	61% 3943-2470 (6413)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Underavg 47¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$154.62	47% 2521-2820 (5341)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 48¢	$480	$435	-$45	53% 5640-4979 (10619)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 47.5¢	$242.63	$217.5	-$20	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Underavg 47.9¢	$170.29	$154.61	-$15.68	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Underavg 46¢	$120.74	$114.18	-$6.56	53% 404-355 (759)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 47.9¢	$99	$95.1	-$3.91	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.9¢	$68.05	$61.77	-$6.28
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.5¢	$30.95	$33.33	+$2.37
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$9.4	$8.7	-$1	55% 7136-5731 (12867)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$13,120.56

Value

$12.2K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

ropetard

Over

Invested

$8,758.61

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

58%

68-49 (117)

ComingBackCTR

Under

Invested

$4,727.51

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$530.64

Record

61%

3943-2470 (6413)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Under

Invested

$2,076.37

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$154.62

Record

47%

2521-2820 (5341)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$480

Value

$435

PnL

-$45

Record

53%

5640-4979 (10619)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$242.63

Value

$217.5

PnL

-$20

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

HerdoniaCTR

Under

Invested

$170.29

Value

$154.61

PnL

-$15.68

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Under

Invested

$120.74

Value

$114.18

PnL

-$6.56

Record

53%

404-355 (759)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$99

Value

$95.1

PnL

-$3.91

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

Both legs:

Under$68.0547.9¢-$6.28

Over$30.9552.5¢+$2.37

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.4

Value

$8.7

PnL

-$1

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpOver 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.