Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 61¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 1

Over61¢Under39¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

Total Value

$22.0K

Combined PnL

$142.66

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 61¢

+7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over61%

Under39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$14.0K

Total Shares23,031

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Under8 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares20,457

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO ropetard	Overavg 57¢	$13.1K	$14.0K	+$1.1K	58% 68-49 (117)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 43¢	$4.1K	$3.7K	-$476.63	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 43¢	$4.0K	$3.6K	-$462.39	52% 4736-4456 (9192)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 43¢	$430	$390	-$40	53% 5640-4979 (10619)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Underavg 44¢	$123.64	$109.59	-$14.05	53% 404-355 (759)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 43¢	$107.5	$97.5	-$10	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$51.59	$46.8	-$4.79	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Overavg 58¢	$40.02	$42.09	+$2.07	62% 4161-2553 (6714)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$8.4	$7.8	-$0.8	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$2.15	$1.95	-$0.2	48% 2424-2645 (5069)

ropetard

Over

Invested

$13,086.7

Value

$14.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

58%

68-49 (117)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$4,099.2

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$476.63

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$3,976.59

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$462.39

Record

52%

4736-4456 (9192)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$430

Value

$390

PnL

-$40

Record

53%

5640-4979 (10619)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Under

Invested

$123.64

Value

$109.59

PnL

-$14.05

Record

53%

404-355 (759)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$107.5

Value

$97.5

PnL

-$10

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$51.59

Value

$46.8

PnL

-$4.79

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

SunlineTicker<$100

Over

Invested

$40.02

Value

$42.09

PnL

+$2.07

Record

62%

4161-2553 (6714)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.4

Value

$7.8

PnL

-$0.8

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.15

Value

$1.95

PnL

-$0.2

Record

48%

2424-2645 (5069)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.