Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Timberwolves, while the market favors Spurs (51%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Spurs (-15.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (57%) · Timberwolves at 49¢ · $647 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Timberwolves
7
Timberwolves 57%
$646.68
$3.86
60.2¢ → 49¢
-19% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidTimberwolves at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Spurs 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Timberwolvesavg 60.5¢ | $302.5 | $297.5 | -$5 | 54% 56824-49050 (105874) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Timberwolvesavg 59.7¢ | $114.15 | $114.79 | +$0.63 | 54% 17200-14430 (31630) |
FO Forecastication2 | Spursavg 38¢ | $104.12 | $109.6 | +$5.48 | 50% 7049-7061 (14110) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Spursavg 47.3¢ | $51.06 | $52.38 | +$1.32 | 48% 959-1040 (1999) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Spursavg 41¢ | $38.84 | $40.2 | +$1.36 | 53% 5014-4502 (9516) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 59¢ | $27.14 | $27.37 | +$0.23 | 58% 28900-21323 (50223) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 62¢ | $5.01 | $4.85 | -$0.16 | 57% 13944-10725 (24669) |
RN1CTRInvested
$302.5
Value
$297.5
PnL
-$5
Record
54%
56824-49050 (105874)
Invested
$114.15
Value
$114.79
PnL
+$0.63
Record
54%
17200-14430 (31630)
Invested
$104.12
Value
$109.6
PnL
+$5.48
Record
50%
7049-7061 (14110)
Invested
$51.06
Value
$52.38
PnL
+$1.32
Record
48%
959-1040 (1999)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$38.84
Value
$40.2
PnL
+$1.36
Record
53%
5014-4502 (9516)
Invested
$27.14
Value
$27.37
PnL
+$0.23
Record
58%
28900-21323 (50223)
Invested
$5.01
Value
$4.85
PnL
-$0.16
Record
57%
13944-10725 (24669)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.