Spread: Spurs (-14.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (50%) · Timberwolves at 60¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Timberwolves
6
Timberwolves 50%
$1.5K
$1.62
58.9¢ → 59.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidTimberwolves at 60%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Timberwolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTicker | Timberwolvesavg 59¢ | $898.19 | $905.8 | +$7.61 | 62% 4161-2553 (6714) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Spursavg 41¢ | $368.32 | $363.83 | -$4.49 | 53% 404-355 (759) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Timberwolvesavg 58¢ | $158.98 | $158.98 | -$0 | 53% 5640-4979 (10619) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Spursavg 41¢ | $66.42 | $65.61 | -$0.81 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Spursavg 41.6¢ | $25.8 | $25.11 | -$0.69 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 58¢ | $2.9 | $2.9 | +$0 | 48% 2424-2645 (5069) |
Invested
$898.19
Value
$905.8
PnL
+$7.61
Record
62%
4161-2553 (6714)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$368.32
Value
$363.83
PnL
-$4.49
Record
53%
404-355 (759)
Invested
$158.98
Value
$158.98
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
5640-4979 (10619)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$66.42
Value
$65.61
PnL
-$0.81
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
Invested
$25.8
Value
$25.11
PnL
-$0.69
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
Invested
$2.9
Value
$2.9
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
2424-2645 (5069)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.