Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Spurs, while the market favors Timberwolves (56%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Spurs (-13.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (83%) · Spurs at 44¢ · $431 held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Spurs
6
Spurs 83%
$430.78
-$6.08
44.2¢ → 43.5¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidSpurs at 44%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Spursavg 44¢ | $220 | $217.5 | -$2.5 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR | Spursavg 44.5¢ | $124.02 | $121.26 | -$2.76 | 50% 3877-3837 (7714) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Spursavg 44¢ | $49.61 | $49.05 | -$0.56 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Spursavg 44.6¢ | $27.66 | $26.97 | -$0.69 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100 | Timberwolvesavg 54¢ | $13.97 | $13.84 | +$0.52 | 53% 5640-4979 (10619) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Spursavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $2.18 | -$0.08 | 48% 2424-2645 (5069) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$220
Value
$217.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
Invested
$124.02
Value
$121.26
PnL
-$2.76
Record
50%
3877-3837 (7714)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$49.61
Value
$49.05
PnL
-$0.56
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
Invested
$27.66
Value
$26.97
PnL
-$0.69
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
Invested
$13.97
Value
$13.84
PnL
+$0.52
Record
53%
5640-4979 (10619)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$2.18
PnL
-$0.08
Record
48%
2424-2645 (5069)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.