Spread: Spurs (-12.5)

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (33%) · Timberwolves at 53¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 1

Spurs48¢Timberwolves52¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.3K

Combined PnL

$73.54

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 52.5¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

4 of 12 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs48%

Timberwolves53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves4 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares15,021

Combined PnL+$320.86

Spurs8 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares10,435

Combined PnL-$247.32

Timberwolves — 33%Spurs — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Timberwolvesavg 50.3¢	$5.9K	$6.2K	+$259.65	50% 19212-19597 (38809)
ComingBackCTR	Spursavg 50¢	$4.7K	$4.5K	-$236.38	61% 3943-2470 (6413)
0X 0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360	Timberwolvesavg 51¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$30.88	46% 135-158 (293)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989ARB<$100	Spursavg 49¢	$935.56	$933.67	-$1.9	53% 5640-4979 (10619)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 49¢	$490	$475	-$15
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 51¢	$445.56	$458.67	+$13.1
IC ic4cream	Timberwolvesavg 50¢	$603	$633.15	+$30.15	59% 2641-1851 (4492)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Spursavg 48.6¢	$558.18	$551.1	-$7.09	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 48.6¢	$406.98	$398.09	-$8.89
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 51.9¢	$151.2	$153.01	+$1.81
VeryLucky888CTR	Spursavg 49¢	$245	$237.5	-$7.5	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Spursavg 48.7¢	$87.74	$85.53	-$2.21	50% 3877-3837 (7714)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Spursavg 48.5¢	$51.17	$50.08	-$1.09	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
RN1CTR<$100	Spursavg 47¢	$45.35	$45.83	+$0.48	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Spursavg 48.3¢	$31.79	$31.24	-$0.55	57% 13860-10628 (24488)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Spursavg 49¢	$13.23	$13.23	+$0	50% 7036-7035 (14071)
GG GGLPL<$100	Timberwolvesavg 51¢	$6.31	$6.49	+$0.19	50% 680-675 (1355)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Spursavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.38	-$0.08	48% 2424-2645 (5069)

omnibus-076daa

Timberwolves

Invested

$5,905.83

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$259.65

Record

50%

19212-19597 (38809)

ComingBackCTR

Spurs

Invested

$4,727.5

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$236.38

Record

61%

3943-2470 (6413)

0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360

Timberwolves

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$30.88

Record

46%

135-158 (293)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989ARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$935.56

Value

$933.67

PnL

-$1.9

Record

53%

5640-4979 (10619)

Both legs:

Spurs$49049¢-$15

Timberwolves$445.5651¢+$13.1

ic4cream

Timberwolves

Invested

$603

Value

$633.15

PnL

+$30.15

Record

59%

2641-1851 (4492)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$558.18

Value

$551.1

PnL

-$7.09

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

Both legs:

Spurs$406.9848.6¢-$8.89

Timberwolves$151.251.9¢+$1.81

VeryLucky888CTR

Spurs

Invested

$245

Value

$237.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$87.74

Value

$85.53

PnL

-$2.21

Record

50%

3877-3837 (7714)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$51.17

Value

$50.08

PnL

-$1.09

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

RN1CTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$45.35

Value

$45.83

PnL

+$0.48

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$31.79

Value

$31.24

PnL

-$0.55

Record

57%

13860-10628 (24488)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$13.23

Value

$13.23

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

7036-7035 (14071)

GGLPL<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$6.31

Value

$6.49

PnL

+$0.19

Record

50%

680-675 (1355)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Spurs

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.08

Record

48%

2424-2645 (5069)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

4 of 12 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.