Spread: Spurs (-10.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (70%) · Spurs at 67¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 1

Spurs67¢Timberwolves33¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 70%

Total Value

$13.1K

Combined PnL

$790.75

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 67¢

+16% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs67%

Timberwolves33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs7 traders

Total Value$13.0K

Total Shares20,888

Combined PnL+$790.39

Timberwolves3 traders

Total Value$87.39

Total Shares205

Combined PnL+$0.36

Spurs — 70%Timberwolves — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Spursavg 58¢	$5.3K	$5.3K	+$48.56	54% 17200-14430 (31630)
VeryLucky888	Spursavg 58¢	$3.8K	$4.5K	+$716.76	58% 42202-30652 (72854)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Spursavg 58¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$24.45	47% 2536-2833 (5369)
RN1	Spursavg 58¢	$179.14	$180.81	+$1.67	54% 56824-49050 (105874)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 43¢	$48.18	$52.66	+$4.48	48% 959-1040 (1999)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Spursavg 58¢	$46.68	$45.98	-$0.7	58% 28900-21323 (50223)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Spursavg 59¢	$40.12	$39.78	-$0.34	50% 3891-3854 (7745)
GH ghorrock<$100	Spursavg 58¢	$32.38	$32.38	-$0	57% 13944-10725 (24669)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 42¢	$36.75	$32.38	-$4.38	53% 5014-4502 (9516)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 42¢	$2.1	$2.35	+$0.25	52% 7347-6663 (14010)

HomeRunHazard

Spurs

Invested

$5,265.86

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$48.56

Record

54%

17200-14430 (31630)

VeryLucky888

Spurs

Invested

$3,779.27

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$716.76

Record

58%

42202-30652 (72854)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Spurs

Invested

$2,836.35

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$24.45

Record

47%

2536-2833 (5369)

RN1

Spurs

Invested

$179.14

Value

$180.81

PnL

+$1.67

Record

54%

56824-49050 (105874)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$48.18

Value

$52.66

PnL

+$4.48

Record

48%

959-1040 (1999)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Spurs

Invested

$46.68

Value

$45.98

PnL

-$0.7

Record

58%

28900-21323 (50223)

NatoAlfista<$100

Spurs

Invested

$40.12

Value

$39.78

PnL

-$0.34

Record

50%

3891-3854 (7745)

ghorrock<$100

Spurs

Invested

$32.38

Value

$32.38

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

13944-10725 (24669)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$36.75

Value

$32.38

PnL

-$4.38

Record

53%

5014-4502 (9516)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$0.25

Record

52%

7347-6663 (14010)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.