Timberwolves vs. Spurs

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (67%) · Spurs at 83¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 1

Timberwolves18¢Spurs82¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$1.13

Smart Money Entry

79.2¢ → 82.5¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves18%

Spurs83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs4 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares4,205

Combined PnL+$15.24

Timberwolves2 traders

Total Value$210.31

Total Shares1,099

Combined PnL-$14.11

Spurs — 67%Timberwolves — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941	Spursavg 79¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	+$19.53	88% 242-33 (275)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Spursavg 78.7¢	$528.31	$499.16	+$4.04	46% 8113-9541 (17654)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 78.7¢	$359.05	$355.66	-$3.39
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 21¢	$136.97	$143.49	+$7.43
OD OddstormCTR	Timberwolvesavg 20.5¢	$184.37	$166.31	-$18.06	38% 383-625 (1008)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Spursavg 83¢	$95.45	$93.73	-$1.73	59% 45474-31848 (77322)
LP lpcapital1<$100	Spursavg 80¢	$87.42	$85.24	-$2.19	63% 1406-823 (2229)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Spursavg 82¢	$61.57	$61.2	-$0.38	49% 19066-19466 (38532)
funnydayCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 20¢	$40.05	$44	+$3.95	50% 3903-3887 (7790)

0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941

Spurs

Invested

$3,085.56

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$19.53

Record

88%

242-33 (275)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$528.31

Value

$499.16

PnL

+$4.04

Record

46%

8113-9541 (17654)

Both legs:

Spurs$359.0578.7¢-$3.39

Timberwolves$136.9721¢+$7.43

OddstormCTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$184.37

Value

$166.31

PnL

-$18.06

Record

38%

383-625 (1008)

UpTheBlues<$100

Spurs

Invested

$95.45

Value

$93.73

PnL

-$1.73

Record

59%

45474-31848 (77322)

lpcapital1<$100

Spurs

Invested

$87.42

Value

$85.24

PnL

-$2.19

Record

63%

1406-823 (2229)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Spurs

Invested

$61.57

Value

$61.2

PnL

-$0.38

Record

49%

19066-19466 (38532)

funnydayCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$40.05

Value

$44

PnL

+$3.95

Record

50%

3903-3887 (7790)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.