Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 226.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 45¢ · $658 held · ends Nov 14

Over45¢Under55¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

Total Value

$657.72

Combined PnL

$15.64

Smart Money Entry

43.9¢ → 44.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$475.54

Total Shares1,034

Combined PnL+$22

Under5 traders

Total Value$182.18

Total Shares328

Combined PnL-$6.36

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 44¢	$421.59	$440.75	+$19.16	35% 749-1385 (2134)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 56¢	$129.11	$124.49	-$4.61	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Overavg 42.1¢	$29.02	$31.72	+$2.7	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Underavg 57¢	$28.5	$27	-$1.5	70% 1711-741 (2452)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 56¢	$15.89	$15.69	-$0.2	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 56¢	$20.27	$11.48	+$0.01	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 55¢	$3.58	$3.51	-$0.07	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$2.93	$3.07	+$0.13	45% 214-259 (473)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$421.59

Value

$440.75

PnL

+$19.16

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$129.11

Value

$124.49

PnL

-$4.61

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.02

Value

$31.72

PnL

+$2.7

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

SunlineTicker<$100

Under

Invested

$28.5

Value

$27

PnL

-$1.5

Record

70%

1711-741 (2452)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$15.89

Value

$15.69

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$20.27

Value

$11.48

PnL

+$0.01

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$3.58

Value

$3.51

PnL

-$0.07

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.93

Value

$3.07

PnL

+$0.13

Record

45%

214-259 (473)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.