Bucks vs. Magic: O/U 220.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (45%) · Over at 59¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Over59¢Under41¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 45%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$102.36

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 58.5¢

+7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over59%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,785

Combined PnL+$128.27

Under6 traders

Total Value$945.33

Total Shares2,148

Combined PnL-$25.91

Over — 45%Under — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (10 on Over) disagree here.

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 54.3¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$95.93	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
FO forecastication4	Overavg 55¢	$578.27	$609.81	+$31.54	31% 134-299 (433)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 45¢	$468.63	$458.22	-$10.41	35% 749-1385 (2134)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 46¢	$161	$154	-$7	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 46¢	$161	$154	-$7	33% 251-499 (750)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 45¢	$115.52	$113.02	-$2.5	53% 1030-921 (1951)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 57¢	$54.28	$55.23	+$0.95	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$51.7	$52.9	+$1.2	35% 735-1379 (2114)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 58¢	$18.67	$18.27	-$0.4	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 57¢	$14.25	$14.5	+$0.25	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 44.7¢	$13.4	$13.2	-$0.2	53% 388-339 (727)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$1,410.48

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$95.93

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

forecastication4

Over

Invested

$578.27

Value

$609.81

PnL

+$31.54

Record

31%

134-299 (433)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$468.63

Value

$458.22

PnL

-$10.41

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$161

Value

$154

PnL

-$7

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$161

Value

$154

PnL

-$7

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$115.52

Value

$113.02

PnL

-$2.5

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$54.28

Value

$55.23

PnL

+$0.95

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$51.7

Value

$52.9

PnL

+$1.2

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$18.67

Value

$18.27

PnL

-$0.4

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$14.25

Value

$14.5

PnL

+$0.25

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.4

Value

$13.2

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (10 on Over) disagree here.

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.