Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bucks vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 50¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$40.47

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 49.5¢

-3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$982.45

Total Shares2,005

Combined PnL-$40.15

Over2 traders

Total Value$48.17

Total Shares98

Combined PnL-$0.32

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$40.8	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$994.4	$1.0K	+$40.8
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$552.35	$552.35	+$0
KA KasonWongCTR	Underavg 51¢	$1.0K	$980	-$40	12% 3-22 (25)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 49.4¢	$41.14	$40.82	-$0.32	35% 171-317 (488)
VE Venusian<$100	Overavg 49¢	$7.35	$7.35	+$0	24% 205-642 (847)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.45	-$0.15	23% 147-489 (636)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,546.76

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$40.8

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

Both legs:

Invested

$1,020

Value

$980

PnL

-$40

Record

12%

3-22 (25)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$41.14

Value

$40.82

PnL

-$0.32

Record

35%

171-317 (488)

Venusian<$100

Over

Invested

$7.35

Value

$7.35

PnL

+$0

Record

24%

205-642 (847)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.15

Record

23%

147-489 (636)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.