Spread: Knicks (-16.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (40%) · Bucks at 55¢ · $665 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Bucks
5
Bucks 40%
$664.66
$5.44
53.7¢ → 54.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidBucks at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Bucksavg 54¢ | $374.1 | $377.56 | +$3.46 | 54% 1644-1413 (3057) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Bucksavg 52.9¢ | $158.93 | $162.27 | +$3.34 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Knicksavg 46¢ | $115.91 | $114.65 | -$1.26 | 48% 937-1010 (1947) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Knicksavg 46¢ | $5.57 | $5.57 | -$0 | 56% 118-93 (211) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Knicksavg 47¢ | $4.7 | $4.6 | -$0.1 | 26% 231-671 (902) |
Invested
$374.1
Value
$377.56
PnL
+$3.46
Record
54%
1644-1413 (3057)
Invested
$158.93
Value
$162.27
PnL
+$3.34
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$115.91
Value
$114.65
PnL
-$1.26
Record
48%
937-1010 (1947)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$5.57
Value
$5.57
PnL
-$0
Record
56%
118-93 (211)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$4.6
PnL
-$0.1
Record
26%
231-671 (902)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.