Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bucks, while the market favors Knicks (54%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Knicks (-14.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (67%) · Bucks at 47¢ · $762 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Bucks
6
Bucks 67%
$761.52
$27.19
44.3¢ → 46.5¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidBucks at 47%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Bucksavg 44¢ | $497.97 | $520.6 | +$22.63 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Bucksavg 45¢ | $143.88 | $147.08 | +$3.2 | 24% 202-637 (839) |
TA takeormakeCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 45¢ | $55.06 | $56.29 | +$1.22 | 59% 3119-2207 (5326) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 46¢ | $23.92 | $24.18 | +$0.26 | 24% 205-642 (847) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Knicksavg 54¢ | $10.8 | $10.7 | -$0.1 | 57% 103-79 (182) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Knicksavg 54¢ | $2.7 | $2.68 | -$0.02 | 23% 147-489 (636) |
Invested
$497.97
Value
$520.6
PnL
+$22.63
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$143.88
Value
$147.08
PnL
+$3.2
Record
24%
202-637 (839)
Invested
$55.06
Value
$56.29
PnL
+$1.22
Record
59%
3119-2207 (5326)
Invested
$23.92
Value
$24.18
PnL
+$0.26
Record
24%
205-642 (847)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$10.8
Value
$10.7
PnL
-$0.1
Record
57%
103-79 (182)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$2.68
PnL
-$0.02
Record
23%
147-489 (636)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.